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Thursday, November 25, 2010

Weekend Picks, Special Turkey Day Edition (13th Week of the Season)

Happy Turkey Day everyone! Make sure you go back and look at yesterday's post in which I let you all know about the things that I am grateful for. But for today, we have an extra special weekend pick off! There are tons of good games and I am going to choose winners for all three big games that are happening tomorrow. That is six ranked teams in three games. I have mentioned this before, but there is absolutely no reason why you should even leave your couch tomorrow. With that said, let's get on with it and pick some games for this holiday weekend!

Saturday, November 27 at 1 PM

(8-3, 6-1 WAC)
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(2-9, 1-6 WAC)

The Rainbow Warriors took care of business last week against the San Jose State Spartans in blow out fashion. In fact, the only team in the WAC that they can't beat is Boise State. Anyway, Hawai'i is bowl eligible and has already accepted an invite to play in their home town Hawai'i Bowl. Quarterback Bryant Moniz was named offensive player of the week after throwing for 560 yards against the Spartans. The team would still like to improve their record. New Mexico State on the other hand, has absolutely nothing to play for other than pride, which can sometimes be a great motivator. They are anemic offensively and suck on defense. What else is there to say about them? Better luck next year Aggies. This game won't be close.
Prediction: Rainbow Warriors 45, Aggies 14

Saturday, November 27 at 6 PM

(4-6, 3-3 WAC)
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(1-10, 0-6 WAC)

Louisiana Tech finds itself on the cusp of bowl eligibility. All they have to do is win their next two games, including this one. Unfortunately for them they finish the season at home against a Nevada team that will be pissed off after getting blown out by Boise State (a little foreshadowing for later on in the post). The Bulldogs have some athletes, there is no doubt about that. They recruit in the talent-saturated south. They have improved greatly this season and should be even better next year. They can not play their best game and still beat the lowly Spartans. Not only is San Jose State the worst team in the WAC, they are also up for consideration for worst team in the country (Akron currently holds the title with a 0-11 record). This game will not change that.
Prediction: Bulldogs 35, Spartans 17

Saturday, November 27 at 8 PM

(5-6, 2-4 WAC)
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(6-4, 4-3 WAC)

This game is very intriguing. On one hand, you have an Idaho team that is fighting to become bowl eligible after pulling out an impressive win over Utah State last week. On the other hand, Fresno State just got absolutely shellacked at Boise State last week and is still hurting. They are going to a bowl game, but would like to finish strong and save some face. Which Bulldog team will show up? The one that nearly upset Nevada or the one that embarrassed itself in Boise? By the same token, which Vandal team is going to show up? The decent squad that beat the Aggies last week or the one that laid down and died against Colorado State earlier in the season? Both quarterbacks will need to play much better than they have been. A little defense wouldn't hurt either. Fresno State has the skill and athletes to take Idaho to the woodshed, but only if they want it. That's why this match up is intriguing and tough to pick a winner for. Who wants it more?
Prediction: Bulldogs 35, Vandals 28

Friday, November 26th at 8:15 PM

(10-0, 6-0 WAC)
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(10-1, 5-1 WAC)

It is finally here! We have all been looking forward to this game with child-like anxiousness. That excitement took a bit of a nose dive when the Wolfpack lost to Hawai'i, but has since built back up nicely. Nevada is ranked 19th and Boise State is 4th. Let's look at this match up logically and rationally, breaking it down into comparisons between positions and units.

Kellen Moore > Colin "Bird Leg" Kaepernick
Enough said. Our guy can throw, there's can't He can run, ours kind of can. Good thing that's what running backs are for.
Vai Taua > Doug Martin
This is only true because the Wolfpack use him a lot more than the Broncos use Martin. Personally, I would take either, but Taua gets the nod due solely to the fact that he gets the rock early and often.
Bronco Defense > Wolfpack Defense
This was the easiest one to choose. Boise State is much better than Nevada on defense by a long shot.
Boise State Offense > Nevada Offense
It is close, but the Broncos are more balanced and therefore get the nod.
Boise State Special Teams = Nevada Special Teams
Normally, the Broncos excel on special teams, but this year has been a bit of a downer, especially on kick off coverage. So there is no way to say which one is better than the other.
Boise State Coaching >>>>>>>>>>> Nevada Coaching
Do you think I put enough emphasis in this one. Chris Ault is known for choking in big games. Chris Petersen is known for excelling in big games and seizing the moment. Besides that, Coach Pete has his players more than prepared mentally every single week this season. There is no reason to believe that this won't happen again this week.
Boise State Intangibles > Nevada Intangibles
Bear with me here. the Broncos are playing for a BCS Bowl bid, possibly the National Championship Game, their final WAC title, pride, and respect nationally. The Wolfpack are playing for a share of the WAC title, at home, a chance to upset one of the best Boise State teams in history, and a Humanitarian Bowl berth. Who do you think has the upper hand here? That's what I thought.

Out of seven categories, Boise State holds the clear edge in 5 of them, breaks even on one, and gives up one to Nevada (as I said, the only reason I put Vai Taua over Doug Martin was due to the amount of work he gets. Both running backs average the same amount of yards per carry at 6.2). Looking at it that way, you would think that this game won't be that close. But Nevada always seems to find a way to hang around with the Broncos. Still, this is a different Boise State team, having improved considerably on both offense and defense. The defensive unit is playing lights out. Kaepernick better be scared, Taua as well. The Wolfpack will gain some yards and score, but it won't be close to enough. The only way I see Boise State losing is if they meltdown completely. Trust me, that won't happen.
Prediction: Broncos 49, Wolfpack 24

Friday, November 26th at 5 PM

(7-3, 4-3 Pac-10)
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(10-0, 7-0 Pac-10)

The California Golden Bears have given the nation a blueprint to beat the Oregon Ducks and their potent offense. They key is to have the athletes to execute it. The Wildcats have those kinds of athletes and will be looking to try their hand at it. Unfortunately for Arizona, the Ducks have had two weeks to tweak and change their offense enough to combat that blueprint. I still think that this will be a very good game, and I would even go as far as to say that Arizona has a chance to pull off the upset. As long as their quarterback Nick Foles can play well and their defense can give them a chance, they could take this one. But, it is at Autzen Stadium in Eugene and Oregon is really good. Their defense still leaves a lot to be desired, but if you can outscore your opponents then you tend to win (right Auburn?!). The Ducks are still in the driver's seat for a National Championship and it is going to take a lot to knock them off. I don't think the Wildcats have quite enough to get it done.
Prediction: Ducks 51, Wildcats 35

Friday, November 26th at 12:30 PM

(11-0, 7-0 SEC)
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(9-2, 5-2 SEC)

Here we go! The Iron Bowl in all its glory. This will be the best one in years. Auburn's embattled quarterback Cam Newton is the best player in college football. He has single-handedly beaten LSU, South Carolina, and Arkansas by himself. The Tigers' defense is not that good, but Newton and the offense has been able to outscore everybody so far, averaging 42.8 points in each contest. The Crimson Tide has one of the best defenses in the nation, giving up only 12.8 points per game. Something here has to give. Also, Alabama's offense isn't too shabby in its own right. Auburn is playing for a berth in the National Championship Game, while Alabama could still make it to the Sugar Bowl. Even if the Tigers lose, they could win the SEC Championship Game against South Carolina and still find themselves ranked 1st or 2nd in the nation. This should be a great game. I have to give the edge to Alabama solely because it is at Bryant Denny Stadium.
UPSET SPECIAL!
Prediction: Crimson Tide 35, Tigers 34

Well there we have it! This should be a great weekend of college football. I am getting excited/nervous/anxious for the Nevada game on Friday. Make sure you come back tomorrow and take a gander at my Weekly PTW. Let's get it done Broncos!

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