Can Boise State Pass TCU by the End of the Year?

The answer is; yes. Yes they can. Obviously they have to win out and do it in convincing fashion. A blow out of Fresno State on Friday is a good start, but then they have to travel to Reno for a match up with the Wolfpack that is yet again looking like it will be a fantastic game. The final game of the year is at home against a terrible Utah State Aggie team and I am not worried about it at all. That means that we, as Boise State Broncos fans, have to do our part and more to cheer the team on to victory.

With that said, we all know that the BCS Rankings were released on Sunday and the Horned Frogs stayed in third. However, the Broncos cut their lead in half and have positioned themselves to jump in front by season's end if everything goes right. As easy as that sounds, it is much more complicated. One of my favorite blogs is obnug.com. It's ran through sbnation and you can write your own fanshots and read all the blogs and information on it. It is quite amusing oftentimes and also very informative. On the subject of BCS Rankings and where Boise State may end up, one of the followers (named MyDadTeachesatBSU) created a very educated post about the computers and how they work. Read through it here, probably more than once so as to take in as much as you can. I will take some parts that I find interesting and shed my own personal light on them.

Richard Billingsley's computer is ridiculous. The whole system where you only get points if you win, and you get more if it is deemed to be a "good win," is asinine. It does not take anything else into account, including how your opponents do in their past and future games. MyDadTeachesatBSU tells us "Billingsley's computers are not retroactive, meaning that he does not adjust point totals based on performance after a game is played, so Utah's loss to ND did nothing to hurt TCU, even though their large lead is based almost entirely on that win." That sucks. In the end, the writer gives us only a 10% chance of getting ahead of TCU in this particular computer. Lame.

Kenneth Massey's seems to be pretty fair. His numbers are based on a strength of schedule system. That means that with one game left for TCU (against a terrible New Mexico team), they have less to help themselves out than Boise State, who has three games left, one of which is a top 25 program in Nevada. "If Fresno can beat Cinci, VT keeps winning, and Baylor loses to Oklahoma, we will pass TCU in the Massey rankings." Good enough for me. Come on Hokies!

There is seriously something wrong with Jeff Sagarin's computer. The fact that it has Boise State ranked 12th is off the chart absurd! It is based on the performance of opponents and yet seems to take no account for what the team in question actually does on the field, other than saying "W" or "L." Just like Massey, we need Virginia Tech to win out, take the ACC Championship game, and for Baylor and Utah to continue to bite the dust. Fortunately, there is a good chance that exactly that happens.

Then there is Peter Wolfe. His disparity in what Boise State and TCU are ranked is preposterous. As MyDadTeachesatBSU tell us, "From what I have read and what I can tell, his rankings are based mostly off of performance against expected performance. So if you win a game you were supposed to win, then it doesn't do much for you. This is bad for BSU because we are supposed to win every game." While I agree with that, I want to add that TCU is supposed to win all of their games as well. But if it really is based on performance against expected performance, then why are the Broncos ranked so low compared to the Horned Frogs? According to this, Boise State has actually done better against the spread than TCU has. Something is definitely wrong with the Sagarin and Wolfe computers. This just adds fuel to the anti-BCS fire, especially since Wolfe is so secretive about his equations and logarithms that determine the rankings.

As I have mentioned, Boise State got a huge boost when they jumped TCU in the human polls on Sunday. But remember, those polls only account for 1/3 of the BCS standings. I also need to point out that only three of the six computers have Virginia Tech ranked, and that is keeping the Broncos so low in many of them. If the Hokies keep winning, including in the ACC Championship Game, all six will show them and it will boost the Broncos up even higher. Nevada being ranked so highly is great as well, as long as Boise State beats them. There is one last thing to add; the highest and the lowest computer rankings are thrown out for each team and they remaining four standings, coupled with the human polls, are averaged out to get the BCS Rankings (absurd, I know). The writer on obnug.com says, "If we are ahead in 3 computer polls and close in the other 3, then the voters will ultimately determine who is the highest non-AQ team, and since we just jumped them and we have 3 games left against better competition than their last game, I would say that we have about a 70-90% chance of finishing ahead of TCU." I like those odds. On the comment section of the same post, TheRooster13 gives us this;

"So let’s guess where TCU and BSU will end up in each computer.

(…in the order listed above.)
BSU: 4, 4, 4, 5, 9, 6
TCU: 5, 3, 5, 6, 8, 4

Taking out the top and bottom for each team we end up with
BSU: 4, 4, 5 ,6
TCU: 5, 5, 6, 4

I’m totally guessing here, but my point is, it doesn’t really matter which school is ahead in more computers, what matters is the relative position."

My conclusion; Boise State wins out and ends up third in the BCS Standings at the end of the season. If Auburn or Oregon lose, Boise State finishes 2nd. If both teams lose, we still finish 2nd, being jumped by LSU. If this is the case, the Broncos will play in the National Championship Game against either Auburn, Oregon (oh please yes!), or LSU. All I'm saying, is that this is for real folks. There is a definite possibility that this could happen. Enough teams behind the Broncos have lost and taken themselves out of consideration that we find ourselves on the cusp of a possible NC Game berth. I never thought it would be possible given the bias against non-AQ teams. We still need a little bit more of that chaos, but it could happen. Don't get your hopes up to high, but cheer for who we need to win, and against who we need to lose.

Also, did anyone see Kellen's pistols after the long bomb to Titus? Priceless!


This week is going to be a little different as far as my posts are concerned. Since I will be in Boise Friday getting ready for the game, I will not be able to put up anything. That means that instead of doing my Weekend Picks on Thursday, I will do them on Wednesday (which happens to be tomorrow!). Naturally, that means the Weekly PTW will be up on Thursday instead of its normal Friday spot. So check back in tomorrow and get yourself ready for the weekend!