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Thursday, October 21, 2010

Weekend Picks, 5th Edition (8th Week of the Season)

Well we have yet another weekend where there isn’t anything too exciting happening in the Western Athletic Conference. In other words, there are really no marquee match ups or exciting games to feast your eyes on. Not only that, but Boise State doesn’t even play until Tuesday. So I guess I am resigned to picking some from other conferences. I will do a “Pick Special” on Monday for the Boise State versus Louisiana Tech game on the 26th, including extensive (aka probably way too much) analysis of the contest on The Blue. For the time being, let’s get going with the three WAC games that are happening on Saturday, as well as others that I deem necessary to add.

Saturday, October 23 at 3 PM

1-5 (0-2 WAC)
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3-3 (0-1 WAC)
The Kibbie Dome will be rocking Saturday afternoon as the Vandals welcome the Aggies (the bad ones in the conference. No not those Aggies. The worst ones. There you go!). New Mexico State comes off yet another conference loss, this time at the hands of the Bulldogs of Fresno State. How bad is it for the Aggies? Well they average scoring 12 points a game and give up almost 39. That bad. At least they are averaging over 100 yards rushing, right? On the other side of the field, Idaho will still be licking its wounds from the beat down they took from Louisiana Tech. They scored, but were not able to stop the Bulldogs at all. Plus only gaining 20 yards on the ground did not bode well for them. They cannot win on the road to save their lives. Good thing this one is at home. The Vandals must win 3 conference games out of the 7 they have left in order to become bowl eligible. You can say that this season has been a let down compared to the moderate success they had last year. They should beat NMSU and San Jose State, but somehow they must find a way to win one against either at Hawai’i, at Utah State, or at Fresno State, or at home against Nevada or Boise State. It could be tough sledding for the silver and gold up north, but I think they can do it. At Fresno is a great opportunity, as well as at Utah State. However, this weekend they must focus on the hapless Aggies of New Mexico State
Prediction: Vandals, 41, Aggies 21

Saturday, October 23 at 3 PM

5-2 (3-0 WAC)
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2-4 (0-2 WAC)
The Rainbow Warriors are riding high after their upset of the then 19th ranked Nevada Wolfpack. They did not have as great of a game offensively, but surprisingly their defense was more than up to the task of stopping “Bird Leg” and co. It helped that the Nevada offense had the absolute worst night in the history of the pistol’s existence. Anyway, this is the Rainbow Warrior team that we had grown to know and love. Quarterback Bryant Moniz has been playing like a man possessed. It helps that he has a receiver like Greg Salas to chuck the ball too. Lots of YAC for Hawai’I and plenty of big gains through the air. Sure-tackling will be the key for the Aggies to win this game. They have to limit the Yards After Contact (like I said, YAC) from Paredes and Salas. They will eat you alive if you try to gator-arm them. Have you seen the way Moniz just stands back there in the pocket and launches the pig skin? He makes it look like he is disinterested and barely moves his arm when throwing. But he gets results, and that’s all that matters. Moving on, I have mentioned before, every time I pick against Utah State they show up and win (see BYU). But when I pick them to win, they drop the ball (pun intended) and get smoked (a la Louisiana Tech). I think that it must be a microcosm of being a team with a young coach and are beginning their climb up. Part of me wants them to join the Mountain West so as to provide a close rival to Boise State and to gage their improvement as the years go by. Utah State plays well at home and I think has a shot to win this one. Hawai’i just came off of an emotional win and there is always a let down the next week (see South Carolina over Alabama and their next game at Kentucky. It did not go well for the Gamecocks). I think emotionally, the biggest difference will be on defense for Hawai’i. They won’t play as solid as they did last week. Still, the Rainbow Warriors are too good to get punked by the Aggies, even on the road and even after a huge win.
Prediction: Rainbow Warriors 34, Aggies 28

Saturday, October 23 at 6 PM

4-2 (2-1 WAC)
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1-6 (0-2 WAC)
The Bulldogs got back to their winning ways by unceremoniously dispatching of the New Mexico State Aggies at home. They continue the sleep-walking part of their conference schedule as they travel up north a little ways to take on the (not so) mighty Spartans. I guess you could consider this season a little bit of a disappointment for Fresno State. They won a big game at home against Cincinnati, but then lost at Ole’ Miss and at home to Hawai’i. It looks like at best a third place finish in the WAC for the Bulldogs. Coach Pat Hill is trying to establish their identity as a tough, run-first offense. I just don’t know if they have the running back to do that (Ryan Mathews is gone). Plus, unleash Ryan Colburn a little bit more, he can get you points through the air, provided that at some point Winston Venable doesn’t drop out of the sky on top of him. San Jose State just got owned at home by Boise State. How does only 80 yards of offense sound (-12 on the ground)? Plus they lost yet another starter as Muldrow went down and came back on crutches. This will be another loss for the Spartans. Maybe this time they can avoid getting their colorguard trampled by the opposing team as they run onto the field (an investigation by the police, really?) If they can keep that from happening, then they will have at least improved since last week.
Prediction: Bulldogs 38, Spartans 13

Thursday, October 21 at 7 PM

3-3 (1-2 PAC 10)
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6-0 (3-0 PAC 10)
I figured since Oregon is one of the teams that Boise State is chasing in the polls and BCS Rankings, it would only be appropriate to pick the winner and score of one of their games. I think that this is an interesting match up for a couple of reasons. The Bruins are averaging 223 yards per game on the ground (that is 100% the reason they destroyed Texas in Austin earlier this year) and the Ducks give up 127 per game (remember, they have played Washington State (91 rush yards), Portland State (74), and New Mexico (25). None have anything close to decent running backs). Against Stanford they gave up 177, Tennessee 182, and Arizona State 210. So UCLA could have a big game on the ground. I do not see them being able to stop the high-powered Oregon offense at all, so they will need to outscore them. I, however, do not see this happening. The Ducks will be too much at home and will push their record to 7-0.
Prediction: Ducks, 42, Bruins 21

Saturday, October 23 at 12 PM

2-5 (0-3 MWC)
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2-5 (1-2 MWC)
This one will probably be a pillow fight. Both teams come limping into to this contest having lost last weekend. The Cowboys got taken to the woodshed by Utah at home and the Cougars were skunked by TCU on the road. It is obviously more disappointing for BYU as they are used to having success and being in the top 25 or at least right on the threshold. It did seem, however, that they were able to hold their own against the Horned Frogs for the first half and part of the second half. JJ DiLuigi is their only offensive weapon, but he is a good one. Wyoming is having a really bad season. They have never really been all that good, but at least they would put up a fight sometimes. They average scoring 11.6 points a game, which is good for second to last in the nation (San Jose State owns the top spot!). This one should be a fairly easy victory for the Cougars as they are at home.
Prediction: Cougars 35, Cowboys 20

Saturday, October 23 at 1:30 PM

7-0 (4-0 SEC)
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7-0 (4-0 SEC)
Yep, that’s right. I am going to attempt another Auburn game. They burnt me last week much in the same way that they did Arkansas. How’s dropping 65 on a SEC defense for ya’?! However, they did give up 43 at the same time. That will be the best part of the game. LSU’s terrible offensive versus Auburn’s terrible defense. Which one will be less terrible? That is the question. At the same time, the Tigers (from Auburn) bring in one of the best offenses in the nation to take on the Tigers (from LSU) and their extremely stingy defense. It should be exciting all around. Les Miles better not pull anything like he did against Tennessee or his squad from Baton Rouge will be in trouble. Another interesting thing about this game is how it affects Boise State. Both teams are right on the heals of the Broncos and whoever wins might pass them. Also, the loser will drop back in the rankings and probably won’t be much of a factor anymore. This will definitely be one worth watching. At home, I think the Tigers get it done.
Prediction: Tigers (of Auburn) 28, Tigers (of LSU) 24

Saturday, October 32 at 1:30 PM

5-1 (2-1 Big 12)
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5-2 (2-1 Big 12)
I don't want to say very much about this contest. Kansas State isn't as good as they think they are and Baylor is better than they are made out to be.
Upset Special!
Prediction: Bears 35, Wildcats 28

Record coming into this week: 25-10

Alright, there we have it! Make sure you check back in tomorrow for my take on the Oregon versus UCLA game and probably a rant or two! Go Broncos!

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