Weekend Picks, 4th Edition (7th Week of the Season)

We are now looking at nothing besides WAC conference games and therefore my total number of contests to pick weekly is very low. Therefore, in order to have a larger post (and possibly to pad my stats by giving myself a better chance to get more right), I am going to choose some other match ups across the country and pick them as well. The game of the week has to be Nevada at Hawai’i. My decisions on other games will be based on what I think are interesting games and maybe teams that I like. Either way, there are some contests from which I must choose winners, so let’s get going!

Saturday, October 16 at 2 PM.

3-2 (0-0 WAC)
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2-4 (1-1 WAC)

The Vandals are coming off of a bye week and will be refreshed, healthy, and excited to get back in action. At 3-2 and with bowl aspirations, they cannot afford to throw away any games that they are supposed to win. This week is one of those games. By all means Idaho has the better team, better players, and has been more consistent. They have somewhat struggled away from the comfy confines of the Kibbie Dome. However, they exercised their road demons against Western Michigan in their last game. Quarterback Nathan Enderle needs to stop throwing the ball to the other team in order for the Vandals to maintain success. On the other side of the field, the Bulldogs are coming off of an overwhelming upset of the Utah State Aggies. Their stats seem to be getting better as they have settled on Ross Jenkins handling the ball. But the big story is running back Lennon Creer tearing up the Aggies defense. Unfortunately for Louisiana Tech, Idaho is more consistent and a better squad than Utah State. They should pick up their second consecutive road victory of the season.
Prediction: Vandals 38, Bulldogs 21

Saturday, October 16 at 8:30 PM

1-4 (0-1 WAC)
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3-2 (1-1 WAC)

The Aggies are riding high after finally winning a game this year. It was even sweeter as they triumphed over in-state rival New Mexico. Coach DeWayne Walker inserted freshman Andrew Manley at quarterback to spark his team to life. It worked as Manley lead his squad down the field for a game winning drive that ended in a field goal. The defense is still bad, but so is that of the Lobos. However, Fresno State is not New Mexico. Plus the Bulldogs are ready to go Hulk on their next opponent after getting smoked by Hawai’i at home last weekend. The Bulldogs have gotten away from what has traditionally been their identity; the running game. The offense has been Ryan Colburn pass-happy. I think the issue is that they don’t have a physical Ryan Mathews-like back to run through the middle. Expect Pat Hill to balance out the offense with a few more rushes against a poor Aggie defensive front. At home and with a lot to prove, Fresno State should win this game pretty easily.
Prediction: Bulldogs 42, Aggies 17

Saturday, October 16 at 9:30 PM

6-0 (1-0 WAC)
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4-2 (2-0 WAC)

All of the sudden this one appears to be much more of a contest than what we expected at the beginning of the season. Nevada had a poor performance at home against San Jose State last weekend and will need to be a lot sharper if they want to take this one. I think they will be. Hawai’i has a poor defense and “Bird Leg” Kaepernick will be able to expose it using the zone read. Vai Taua will have another big game. As poor as the Rainbow Warrior’s secondary is, there will be some passes flying through the humid island air on Saturday night. At first thought, this game looks like a shoot out. In many ways it will be; there will be plenty of points scored. But Nevada has an OK defense this year and should be able to at least slow down QB Bryant Moniz and his group of outstanding receivers. A few turnovers one way or the other could be the difference in this contest. I think Nevada has enough defensive pride to not let there season be spoiled this early.
Prediction: Wolfpack 45, Rainbow Warriors 35

Saturday, October 16 at 6 PM
The moment of truth!

5-0 (1-0 WAC)
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1-5 (0-1 WAC)

Historically San Jose has been an extremely tough place for the Broncos to play. Whether it’s Ian Johnson puncturing a lung or a tougher than normal Spartan defense forcing some Kellen Moore turnovers, San Jose State has been able to give Boise State all that it could handle. Remember the first Fiesta Bowl year when it took a late touchdown, an amazing catch on a two-point conversion, and a field goal as time expired for the Broncos to leave with the W? That will not be the case this year. This is a different Spartan team and a different Bronco team. They have gone in opposite directions. Coach Mike MacIntyre is in his first year as head coach and it has been rough. The Spartans have been decimated by injuries and rank dead freaking last in the nation in points scored per game. They average 10.3 a game. That is not enough to beat anybody. Quarterback Jordan LaSecla has played poorly and it is possible that MacIntyre may start looking for something different at that spot. At the same time the defense gives up almost 32 in each contest. Kellen Moore and his offensive line are unstoppable. They have only given up one sack and are reading and picking up blitzes perfectly. Plus Moore has gotten really proficient at disguising plays and who actually has the ball. As new wrinkles are added weekly (i.e. the “Wild Avery” that netted three touchdowns last week), the Boise State offense is nearly impossible to stop. On the other side of the ball, I contend that there is not a better starting front four in the nation than Baker, Winterswyk, McClellin, and Winn. They are ferocious and are racking up sacks and tackles for loss week in and week out. The one weakness of the defense has been the secondary. Kyle Wilson played a huge role that has not been completely filled yet. Still, they will get better as the season speeds ahead. Basically what I am saying is that San Jose State stands absolutely no chance of beating the third ranked Broncos. This will be a different game than it has been at Spartan Stadium in years past. It will get ugly fast and crescendo into a lopsided score-fest in favor of Boise State only paralleled by the events of two weeks ago in Las Cruces. It may even eclipse that. There is just too much fire power for the boys from Boise and not enough talent, wit, smarts, desire, or attitude to counter. The Broncos could play the worst game of their lives and it wouldn’t matter. I would be surprised if Boise State is not ahead by at least 21 points after the first quarter. It’s too bad San Jose State is having a down year; the WAC desperately needs quality competition. It won’t get it from the Spartans.
Prediction: Broncos 55, Spartans 7

Bonus Picks:

Thursday, October 14 at 5:30 PM

4-1 (1-1 Big 12)
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2-3 (0-1 Big 12)

The Wildcats are coming off of a disappointing loss at home to Nebraska. Not only did they lose, they barely fielded a competitive team out there, getting pummeled 48-13. It was surprising because it counted for their first loss of the season. For the Kansas State offense, they don’t pass the ball very well with Carson Coffman at quarterback. Running back Daniel Thomas is the bulk of their offense, having scored 6 touchdowns already. Kansas has appeared in my weekend picks before when they smoked New Mexico State 42-16. But the Jayhawks have been very up and down this year. Baylor owned them last weekend in Waco, but yet they beat a ranked Georgia Tech team early on in the season. There are problems all around. They can’t pass, run, or defend very well. Even though this game is at home, I don’t think Kansas has what it takes to pull off the upset over an angry Kansas State squad.
Prediction: Wildcats 28, Jayhawks 20

Saturday, October 16 at 1:30 PM

4-1 (1-1 SEC)
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6-0 (3-0 SEC)

Arkansas comes into this game having only lost once to the former number one team in the nation Alabama. They threw the game away with some ugly late interceptions. Still, quarterback Ryan Mallett is one of the top players in the nation and can do some damage with a group of great wide receivers. The offensive fault is their run game, which has not been very well thus far. Defensively, they rank 13th in the nation only giving up 15 points a game. They will have to be at their very best to win this contest. Auburn’s quarterback Cam Newton is well on his way to New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation. He probably won’t win it, but he will have earned it by his great play this season. His offense scores almost 37 points a game and is relentless. However, the Tigers’ defense has not been on par. Giving up 22 points a game will catch up to you eventually in the tough SEC. I think that this is the game that it happens. Still, why do I get the feeling that I am guessing this one totally wrong? Let's hope my upset special mojo is still alive!
Upset Special!
Prediction: Razorbacks 24, Tigers 21

Record coming into this weekend: 22-7

Make sure you come back tomorrow and catch my player to watch for Boise State’s game against the San Jose State Spartans!