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Monday, October 25, 2010

Boise State vs. Louisiana Tech, plus Weekly Player to Watch, 6th edition

That's right, today is a very special edition of my Weekly PTW! Since for some strange ESPN-related reason, Boise State is playing a football game on Tuesday night against the mighty Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech. That means my entire schedule was thrown off dating back to last Thursday when I make my picks and then Friday when I normally give you my player to watch. With that said, all it means is that you folks, as my blog readers, get an extra large heaping of Bronco Chase today! Lucky you! This post will be a mix of game preview and analysis, my Weekly PTW, and of course a prediction of the final score. So let's get started!

After two consecutive games of not getting anybody hurt due to the phantom "Weekly PTW" injury curse, I am ready to pick again. I am going with somebody on the offensive side of the ball, seeing as how LA Tech is not capable of stopping anybody. So after a few minutes of decisive pondering, I am going with a receiver for this week's PTW...Austin Pettis!!!!!


If you look at Louisiana's pass defense, they are really bad. The numbers tell me so. The Bulldogs rank 119th out of 120 teams in that category. In other words, everybody has been successful throwing against them. At the same time, they do pretty well against the run. I would expect the Broncos to force the running game, especially early, before unleashing Kellen Moore and his pack of very talented wide receivers and tight ends. That includes Mr. Pettis. Did you know that he has not scored a touchdown since September? Yep, the Oregon State game was the last time that he found himself celebrating a TD in the end zone. He is ripe for a score or two (or four). Think about it this way; Louisiana Tech brings one of the worst pass defenses in the nation into Bronco Stadium. Boise State has one of the best passing offenses in said nation. Austin Pettis has gone touchdownless for a few games now and is very hungry (and possibly angry) to score. It is perfect situation for some Moore to Pettis for 6 action. It will look a little something like this:


Pettis came to The Blue from Orange Lutheran High School in Anaheim, California. He lettered three times in football, but was also a star in basketball and track. In fact, he was named Velocity/Prep Star All-Region, first-team all-county, first-team all-league, and third-team all-state as a senior after hauling in 72 receptions for 1,079 yards and 13 touchdowns. Pettis' senior year he led his team to a state championship and in the process, garnered All-Southern Section honors (I borrowed this info from obnug.com). In other words, he was really good and has the numbers to prove it. Austin was a big recruit for the Broncos as he came out of high school ranked as a three-star athlete. He fielded offers from the Broncos, Utah State, and Utah. Good thing he came to Boise State or he would have never been able to make posters like this:


It is crazy to think that Austin is a senior. It seems like just yesterday that he showed up on The Blue wearing number 87. He contributed frequently as a freshman, racking up 139 yards and 3 TD's against Idaho back in 2007. Since then, he has done nothing but put up staggering numbers. There is a definite handicap on our offense if he is out. So let's hope the swinging gate two point conversion attempts don't break his foot again, like it did last year against Nevada. It is interesting to think about what would have happened in the Fiesta Bowl against TCU had he been able to play. His presence on the field is huge, but his production is just as important for the offense. Virginia Tech knows what he can do. Can anyone say game winning touchdown?!?!?!


This game against the Bulldogs could be momentous for Pettis as he is closing in on the Boise State record books. His name is already at the top of the list that says "most touchdowns in one season." He notched that one last year with 14. Austin needs 7 catches to break the 37-year old Boise State record for most career receptions held by Don Hutt. I think it could happen, especially if he is to go off like I am expecting him to. So, as long as he doesn't go "Wyoming" this week and get benched by Coach Pete, he might break it!


There we have it! Austin Pettis is the Weekly Player to Watch! Check him out tomorrow against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs!

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On to the game!

Tuesday, October 26 at 6 PM

3-4, (2-1 WAC)
at

6-0, (2-0 WAC)

Is it just me or does the Idaho Statesman newspaper try to build up Boise State's opponents in an effort to make a potentially lopsided game look even? They did the same thing for New Mexico State, Toledo, and San Jose State. However, this time around I think they might have a legitimate case to do it. After all, Louisiana Tech did put up 683 yards of offense against Idaho in their last game, 422 of which came through the air. Boise State's secondary has not been tested since the Virginia Tech game, and they looked bad against the Hokies. At the same time, the reason that they have not been tested is because the Broncos' pass rush is so overwhelming and ferocious that opposing quarterbacks have not had time to throw. This is setting the stage for what I think are the keys to the game. If Boise State can sack the quarterback early and at least apply pressure from then on, they will force Ross Jenkins to throw early, make mistakes, and toss some INT's. On the other hand, if Jenkins is able to get comfortable and has time in the pocket, a lot of pressure will be placed on Brandyn Thompson, George Iloka, Jeron Johnson, Jamar Taylor, and Jerrell Gavins in the secondary. Those guys will need to play well regardless, but a lack of pass rush will put undue stress on them. I think you will see Coach K. (defensive coordinator) mix up the schemes and blitzes, get creative, and force LA Tech into turning the ball over. The Bulldogs will not be able to run the ball, even with Tennessee-transfer Lennon Creer in the backfield. Boise State will not have as big of a game rushing wise, but will end up with decent numbers as they try to force it against a stiff run defense. The passing will open it up for more rushing and eventually the Bulldogs will be guessing wrong, pass or rush. That is when Moore gashes teams deep and Doug Martin breaks off for huge gains. The game may be close early, but Boise State will pull ahead and keep Kellen Moore and the rest of the starters in throughout the third quarter to make sure. Boise State will win fairly easily, wishing another WAC team a brutal farewell.
Prediction: Broncos 55, Bulldogs 17

Record before this game: 32-10
I have a feeling that I will end up with one more "W" tomorrow evening!
Let's go Broncos!

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