Just when we thought it was over...

Alright, we thought the crisis and mass hysteria was over, avoided, done, and in the past. But then the Salt Lake Tribune delivered this snot-bubbler to the ribs of the college football world (note: a snot-bubbler is a term that I coined. It is used in football to describe when a defender hits the guy with the ball so hard and ferociously that it forces snot to bubble and blow out his nose). Actually, Colorado State had reported the story two times via Twitter in the early hours of Wednesday morning, only to delete the posts claiming that someone had hacked their account. Anyway, what is important is what the article says; BYU is leaving the Mountain West to become independent in football and will rejoin the WAC in all other sports. Holy Bill of Rights Batman!!!!! No where else is reporting that this is a done deal, just that there is heavy momentum swinging the Cougars that way. Even ESPN has not officially confirmed the move. Stay tuned, it could happen any second. What does this mean and what could happen because of it?

Here is what I think will happen if BYU's move is completed and becomes official: Well, Boise State will be kicking themselves for joining the Mountain West. Without BYU, they aren't that much better off than they were in the WAC. TCU is still there, which is nice, but my bet is TCU finds its way into the Big 12 when all is said and done. It could take a year or so, but it will happen, they are too good and carry too much prestige with their name for it not to happen. Goodbye Horned Frogs and then the Broncos are really in it deep. The Mountain West could try and invite Fresno State and/or Nevada, but both schools along with the everybody else in the conference just signed a contract to stay in the WAC for the next 5 years, and it has a $5 million buy out clause (source: ESPN's Andy Katz here ). This does not look good for the Mountain West Conference. The Broncos will rejoin the WAC. You can quote me. If BYU leaves, Boise State will be back pedaling faster than a cornerback trying to defend Titus Young on a deep post route. Karl Benson, the WAC's commissioner will gladly welcome the Broncos back, and then bellow a huge sigh of relief. Then the Western Athletic Conference can renegotiate their TV deal with ESPN, of which the Broncos are a huge pawn to have back on their side. The WAC is not only preserved, but is better off with BYU competing in all other sports and against 4 to 6 WAC football squads a year (source: same ESPN Andy Katz article mentioned earlier). That's not too bad of a deal for the once not-so-flashy Western Athletic Conference. However, if Fresno State and Nevada somehow get an invite and decide to pay the price to leave the WAC, I think Boise State and TCU will both stay, for now at least. This will make the Mountain West about equal to what it would be if BYU stayed. We will see.

In the eyes of the Cougars, they are getting shafted. It boils down to the fact that they are getting only $2 million in shared revenue from the Mountain West TV deal, plus their bitter rival, the Utah Utes, are joining the soon to be Pac 12. BYU is feeling upset about the lack of money and that they didn't get the invite to join Utah as a package deal (something I think should have happened anyway, but that is another story). Think of it this way, BYU-TV already exists and there are so many members of the LDS church inside and outside of Utah that would pony-up big bucks to order a TV package to see all of BYU's games (a la Notre Dame). The revenue would increase exponentially. All of these things are what good would come from BYU going independent.

However, there are far more undesirable things that would take place. BYU does not have the prestige or pull or uniqueness that Notre Dame has and therefore will have a harder time garnering national attention while on their own. Scheduling would be tough, not impossible, but tough. The biggest set back is one that I think, on its own, could compel BYU to remain in the Mountain West. It consists of three letters: BCS. Notre Dame has a deal with the BCS gurus that if they finish in the top 8, then they get to go to one of their bowls. That royalty-like treatment is due to the Irish's national pull and following, history, and prestige. The Cougars would not get anything close to that kind of deal or promise. They may be left out in the cold all together. I guess if they finish number 1 in the nation then there would be no choice but to include them, but that is unlikely to happen. The entire goal of all non-automatic qualifying schools is to bust the BCS and get into one of their bowl games. BYU has been on the precipice of doing just that for a few years counting. All that would end if they went independent. Have fun playing in the papajohns.com Bowl, or the new Yankee Bowl or whatever crappy game invites you.

That is a lot to loose if you are BYU. Surely the risks outweigh what there is to gain. But who knows, they may just do it because they are pissed about the Utah thing and the money thing, but I think it would be a huge mistake, and I am not alone.